Why Has Gold Been Rising for ~13 Days?
1. U.S. Fed Rate Cut Expectations & Weak U.S. Data
Markets are now fully pricing in a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, possibly as early as mid-September, due to softer labor data and inflation trends. Lower real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, making it more attractive.
2. Weaker U.S. Dollar
The greenback has weakened by around 10% in 2025, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies and boosting demand.
3. Safe-Haven Demand Amid Geopolitical & Policy Risk
Giants like Goldman Sachs see gold as their “highest-conviction” commodity, citing the potential for prices to soar to $5,000/oz if the Fed’s independence is challenged. Global uncertainties—from trade tensions and geopolitics to central bank buying—are deploying fresh tailwinds for gold.
4. Technical Momentum in India (MCX)
On the MCX, gold hit a new lifetime high of ₹1,07,807 per 10 g, bolstered by bullish technicals: RSI (~54), a reversal from the lower Bollinger Band, EMA crossovers, and bullish MACD divergence. Analysts recommend a “buy on dips” strategy, with some forecasting targets near ₹1.09 lakh per 10 g in the near term.
What’s the Potential Target on MCX Gold & Where Could Swing High Occur?
Short-Term (MCX Gold)
- Current range: Near lifetime highs (~₹1,07,800 per 10 g).
- Analyst targets: Rise to ₹1,09,000–₹1,10,000 soon.
- Support: Strong base around ₹1,05,800.
International (COMEX / USD)
- Technical projections: $3,930/oz with supports at $3,430 and $3,150.
- Goldman Sachs: Speculative target up to $5,000/oz.
- J.P. Morgan: Expects continued upside through 2025–2026.
- Current spot: Above $3,600/oz, with a ~37% YTD rally.
Summary Table: MCX Gold Outlook
| Timeframe | Level to Watch | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Immediate | ₹1,08,000–₹1,09,000 | Potential swing-high zone, supported by bullish momentum |
| Short-term | ₹1,09,000–₹1,10,000 | Key resistance – breakout here could signal further upside |
| Pullback Risk | ↓₹1,05,800 | Support base; dip could be seen as a buying opportunity |
| Strategic Zone | ₹1,10,000 | Psychological and technical barrier – possible stall point |
Concluding Thoughts
The gold rally over the past ~13 trading days stems from dovish expectations, dollar weakness, safe-haven inflows, and strong technicals—both globally and on MCX.
On MCX, traders should watch the ₹1,08,000–₹1,10,000 range as the likely swing-high area. A clear breakout could propel prices further, while any retracement toward ₹1,05,800 may offer a fresh entry opportunity.
Given how fast this uptrend has played out, prudent traders often monitor momentum indicators and key levels to time entries or partial exits.
Further Reading
- Gold hits $3,600 as US rate cut expectations rise
- Commodity Radar: Buy on dips, says LKP Securities
- Gold prices near record high – Analysts predict Rs 1.09 lakh target
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